As we close the book on 2025, it’s worth pausing - not to predict what comes next - but to look back at what actually mattered.
Because if this year taught us anything, it’s this: the loudest moments rarely decide the final outcome.
If you’re a 49ers fan, you already know this. Winning a sixth Super Bowl - the elusive one that keeps slipping away - isn’t about one game, one quarter, or one bad call. It’s about roster depth, health, adjustments, patience and surviving a very long road where things will go wrong and surviving a long season where things go sideways, including losing home-field advantage after half the roster is already banged up.
The market works the same way.
2025 was a target-rich environment for worry. Tariffs. AI scares. Rate cuts. Shutdown drama. Recession chatter. Valuation panic. Concentration panic. Every week felt like a must-win Sunday.
And yet…markets quietly kept moving the chains.
The S&P 500 finished up nearly 18% with dozens of new highs. International stocks were up more than 30%. Bonds had their best year since 2020. Even gold had a moment. Once again, diversified investors were rewarded for sticking with the game plan instead of reacting to every hit.
It’s a good reminder that watching markets day-to-day is a lot like watching every snap of a long NFL season and trying to forecast the Super Bowl matchup in October. It’s entertaining, emotional and mostly useless.
A few lessons worth carrying into 2026:
• Valuations are not a timing tool.
High valuations haven’t stopped strong multi-year runs before, just like a tough schedule hasn’t stopped great teams. Valuations matter - just not on a one-season timeline.
• “It’s only a few stars” misses the depth chart.
Every successful team has leaders. What matters is what’s happening beneath the surface. Market participation has been broader than the headlines suggest, much like winning teams rely on more than just their superstar players.
• Volatility is part of the season.
Double-digit drawdowns happen inside years that still end up positive. Bad quarters, bad games, even bad stretches don’t invalidate the plan. They’re all part of eventual the outcome.
• Earnings are the scoreboard.
Narratives come and go. Prices swing. Over time, earnings growth is what puts points on the board. That hasn’t changed.
• Timing is optional. Discipline is not.
You don’t need to call the perfect play every down. You need a strategy you can stick with when momentum shifts and the crowd gets loud.
The common thread is simple: markets don’t reward prediction or rash moves- they reward staying in the game.
As we head into 2026, there will be new headlines, new fears, and new reasons to believe this time is different. It rarely is. The best response remains the same one that’s worked over and over again: stay disciplined, stay diversified, and keep your eyes on the long-term goal, not the week-to-week noise.
Take this week’s news out of Venezuela. It’s significant and it’s absolutely worth monitoring - but right now, we don’t yet know what the real economic or market repercussions will be. History suggests that waiting for clarity beats reacting to uncertainty - as always, stay tuned
Winning a Super Bowl takes patience, resilience, and depth. Building long-term wealth does too. The road may be long - and the sixth ring may still be elusive - but abandoning the plan mid-season has never been the answer.
Wishing you and your family a healthy, happy and prosperous year ahead.
Until next time, take good care!
