April Market Recap: Jimmy Buckets & Market Snapbacks
April came in hot — wild swings, dramatic headlines, and enough chaos to make you second-guess everything if you weren’t careful. Stocks were hit hard early in the month. The S&P 500 down as much as 12%, before snapping right back and ending almost exactly where it started. Bonds and international stocks quietly held the line. Meanwhile, the economy threw a slight head fake with a small contraction.
Sound familiar? It should. The Warriors got written off too. Stuck in Play-In tournament purgatory. No pulse. Then boom - they traded for Jimmy Butler, turned up the intensity and are now up 3-2 heading into a pivotal Game 6 at Chase Center tonight. (And no, this newsletter doesn’t believe in jinxes. None that we admit to anyway.)
The Warriors' turnaround? Resilience, smarter moves and new blood at the right time.
As for the Markets? Same story.
And if you’re wondering - yes, Scott Bessent is playing the Jimmy Butler role in Washington. Calm, tough, clutch. As for the Draymonds...let's just say tariff drama brings out a lot of elbows.
Bottom line: you don’t win by panicking when things get ugly. You win by staying locked in and playing through it. Same with investing.
April 2025 Scoreboard
- S&P 500: -0.8%
- Nasdaq: +0.9%
- Bonds (Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index): +0.4% (up 3.2% YTD)
- International Stocks: +3.7%
- Emerging Markets: -0.2% (bounced back hard from early drops)
- U.S. Dollar: -4.5% (lowest in three years)
- Inflation: +2.4% (still lurking, but cooler than feared)
- GDP: -0.3% (mostly pre-tariff panic buying)
Tariff Drama = 2016 Game 7 Flashbacks
Speaking of basketball, April 2nd felt like Game 7 of the 2016 NBA Finals. Andre Iguodala had a breakaway layup that would have iced it for the Dubs — until LeBron James came flying out of nowhere for that legendary block.
In April, unexpected tariffs played the LeBron role and turned markets upside down. Stocks sold off hard as investors worried about rising prices and global trade friction.
Then — in a move as shocking as Steph pulling up from 35 feet — the administration delayed most tariffs by 90 days. Just like that, Jimmy Butler was driving to the hoop, and the markets surged right back.
Volatility spiked. The VIX (Wall Street’s fear gauge) hit pandemic-era levels. But despite all the drama, markets ended the month barely changed. If you sold during the chaos (don’t worry — you didn’t), you missed the rally. Timing the market is still a fool’s errand.
GDP Dip, but Consumers Still Ballin'
The slight economic contraction (-0.3%) came mostly from companies scrambling to buy goods ahead of tariff deadlines. Consumer spending cooled but stayed positive. And for now, consumers are still carrying the economy on their backs like Kevon Looney snatching every rebound.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has its hands full. Markets are betting the Fed cuts rates four times this year, maybe starting in July. I am still dubious especially if inflation remains sticky - stay tuned.
The Long Game Still Wins
History is clear: staying invested through volatility is the best way to win. Selling when things get messy feels tempting but usually backfires. Big market drops and big market rallies often happen back-to-back — miss one, and you miss both.
April’s twists and turns reminded us again: stay focused, stay diversified and keep playing the long game.
And in the case of the Warriors - having Steph Curry on your side doesn’t hurt either. Same with investing. Markets get messy. Shots don’t always fall. But real talent shows up when it matters.
We’re sticking with the Steph Currys of the market - the game-changers - and betting that greatness, over time, always wins.
Just like the Warriors — it’s not how you start the month, it’s how you finish.
Until next time, take good care and go Dubs!
