If you’ve watched a Giants game lately, you know it hasn’t been pretty.
At times, it’s looked like they forgot how to hit, pitch or field - 0 for 3, which sadly sounds a lot like the Giants’ hitters these days. As someone who’s usually an optimist when it comes to both my favorite teams and the markets…
Let’s just say my optimism is currently a little more selective.
I still believe in the Giants long term. I always do. But right now? The evidence is really testing my faith.
The market, on the other hand, just gave us a pretty good reminder of why patience tends to win out.
April in a Nutshell
April started with uncertainty and ended with new all-time highs.
- The S&P 500 gained 10.4%
- The Nasdaq jumped 15.3%
- Small caps surged over 12%
All of this happened while:
- Conflict in the Middle East continued
- Oil prices swung sharply higher
- The Fed signaled uncertainty about its next move
- Investors had plenty of reasons to feel cautious
And yet…markets rallied anyway.
If that feels familiar, it should.
The Market’s Favorite Trick
Markets have a habit of doing the exact opposite of what feels comfortable.
They pull back just enough to make you question things…then recover just fast enough to make it hard to get back in.
We’ve seen this pattern before:
- 2020
- 2022
- Early 2025
- And now again in 2026
It’s not unusual.
It’s the process.
The $5 Trillion Reminder
I came across a Morningstar study recently that put a big number on something we talk about all the time.
Over the past decade, investors in Vanguard funds generated roughly $5 trillion in gains.
That sounds like a story about great investing.
It’s not.
It’s a story about what happens when you don’t interrupt a good strategy.
Those investors:
- Stayed invested
- Kept adding money
- Paid low fees
- Owned broadly diversified portfolios
Nothing fancy.
Is There a Reason These Newsletters Sound Like a Broken Record, Steve?
Fair question.
The truth is…I am in the broken record business.
Because this is exactly how I invest money and build portfolios.
There’s a reason Vanguard plays a big role in many of your portfolios. Their philosophy and my strategy are kindred spirits - disciplined, low-cost and built for the long run, not the headline of the day.
Your portfolio isn’t designed to:
- Time every move
- Avoid every downturn
- Chase whatever’s working this month
It’s designed to:
- Stay invested through volatility
- Capture growth across different parts of the market
- Let earnings and time do the heavy lifting
It may not be exciting…but it works.
Why This Matters (Especially Right Now)
The past few weeks were a perfect example.
The market pulled back.
It didn’t feel great.
There were plenty of reasons to worry.
Then it recovered. Quickly. And hit new highs.
The investors who benefited most weren’t the ones who predicted the rebound.
They were the ones who stayed put.
A Quick Reality Check
Markets have historically finished positive:
- About two-thirds of the time since 1928
- Closer to three-quarters of the time since 1980
But it never feels that way in the moment.
There’s always something:
- Inflation
- Interest rates
- Geopolitics
- Elections
- Oil prices
Right now, it happens to be all of the above.
Meanwhile… Back to the Giants
Here’s the key difference.
With the Giants, optimism is optional.
With markets, it’s structural.
Markets are driven by:
- Companies growing
- Earnings expanding
- Innovation continuing
That doesn’t mean a straight line. It never is.
But it does mean that over time, there’s a foundation supporting that optimism.
Even when things feel uncertain.
The Bottom Line
April was a reminder of something simple:
Markets don’t reward perfect timing.They reward discipline.
The $5 trillion Vanguard story didn’t happen because investors got every decision right.
It happened because they avoided getting the big ones wrong.
They stayed invested through volatility — including moments that looked a lot like the one we just experienced.
Final Thought
I’ll keep rooting for the Giants. That part doesn’t change.
But if I had to choose where I feel more confident right now…
Let’s just say the market has earned a little more of my optimism this month.
Until next time, take good care!
