June 7, 2024

The Broadcast | May 2024

Crissy Field on a spectacularly sunny day (while rare, these luckily happen more often than every 30 years) Photo by Antonio Gabola on Unsplash

As I furiously put the finishing touches on this month's edition, I've been in a very nostalgic mood. You see, later today I'll make the 40ish mile trek from my home in San Francisco to my hometown of Petaluma so I can watch my nephew A.J. graduate from the same high school I did exactly 30 years ago.

Obviously, a lot has changed in the past 30 years and looking through the eyes of my nephew only accentuates that notion. What was once fantasy (personal communication devices were only found in Star Trek, fast and wireless internet, electric cars, the Giants winning the World Series, etc.) is now commonplace.

In 1994, most of us probably thought that Starbuck was a character from Moby Dick or (if you were like me) the arrogant starfighter pilot from my favorite sci-fi TV show Battlestar Galactica. Today, their eponymous stores are everywhere and my daughters love the coffee chain for the sugary drinks (personally I preferred Slurpees growing up.) Even my Dad (who I'm pretty sure drank Folgers most of his life) can't live without his daily latte. (Do I have a Starbucks coffee in front of my as I type this? I'll never tell.)

Three decades ago, a 39 year old Steve Jobs was still three years from returning to Apple (he was in year 9 of an eventual 12 year banishment from his beloved company.) The stock is up 90,000% since before Mr. Jobs had even turned 40 - largely from products that he'd eventually help invent in the late 90's (the iPod) and early 2000's (the iPhone.) Perhaps you're even reading this on your iPhone, iPad or MacBook? (I really hope that none of you are reading this on you Apple Watch...your poor eyes!)

30 years ago, the main artificial intelligence we were concerned with was Arnold Schwarzenegger and SkyNet from the Terminator film franchise. Today, Nvidia is either the first or second most valuable company in the world. Their meteoric rise comes ostensibly from silicon chips that are fueling an actual A.I. revolution, one that hopefully doesn't include robots from the future. (Don't think you're participating in A.I.? Think again, as Nvidia has grown to become nearly 7% of the S&P 500!)

I wonder what the next 30 years has in store for us? If you know me, you know that I am an optimist who believes in the power of innovation, human consumption and companies' abilities to profit from those two strongly held beliefs. As such, I am extremely hopeful that the next 30 years will be even more astounding than the last. Who knows, maybe my personal A.I. will be writing a similar newsletter to your personal A.I.'s 30 years hence?

Hey, it could happen!

As for today's markets: fueled by decent inflation and jobs data, as well as solid corporate earnings May was a strong month as all major stock and bond indices were positive!

Index Performance May 2024

The summer months are usually a little less volatile for the markets, so I'll be interested to see what the next three months have in store for us and will report back in early July!

Until next time, please take good care and reach out if you'd like to chat about your investments, the economy, the Giants mediocre season or anything else!

Steve